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There are recent reports of apparently drastic declines in amphibian populations and of extinctions of a number of the world’s endangered amphibian species. These declines, if real, may be signs of a general trend toward extinction, and many environmentalists have claimed that immediate environmental action is necessary to remedy this “amphibian crisis,” which, in

their view, is an indicator of general and catastrophic environmental degradation due to human activity.

To evaluate these claims, it is useful to make a preliminary distinction that is far too often ignored. A declining population should not be confused with an endangered one. An endangered population is always rare, almost always small, and, by definition, under constant threat of extinction even without a proximate cause in human activities. Its disappearance, however unfortunate, should come as no great surprise. Moreover, chance events—which may indicate nothing about the direction of trends in population size—may lead to its extinction. The probability of extinction due to such random factors depends on the population size and is independent of the prevailing direction of change in that size.

For biologists, population declines are potentially more worrisome than extinctions. Persistent declines, especially in large populations, indicate a changed ecological context. Even here, distinctions must again be made among declines that are only apparent (in the sense that they are part of habitual cycles or of normal fluctuations), declines that take a population to some lower but still acceptable level, and those that threaten extinction (e.g., by taking the number of individuals below the minimum viable population). Anecdotal reports of population decreases cannot distinguish among these possibilities, and some amphibian populations have shown strong fluctuations in the past.

It is indisputably true that there is simply not enough long-term scientific data on amphibian populations to enable researchers to identify real declines in amphibian populations. Many fairly common amphibian species declared all but extinct after severe declines in the 1950s and 1960s have subsequently recovered, and so might the apparently declining populations that have generated the current appearance of an amphibian crisis. Unfortunately, longterm data will not soon be forthcoming, and postponing environmental action while we wait for it may doom species and whole ecosystems to extinction.

【OG20-P446-571题】

It can be inferred from the passage that the author believes which of the following to be true of the environmentalists mentioned in highlight lines ?

  • 分析A选项
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  • 分析B选项
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  • 分析C选项
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  • 分析D选项
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  • 分析E选项
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暂无雷哥网文字解析
当前版本由 感觉自己萌萌哒 更新于2015-11-03 11:06:42 感谢由 感觉自己萌萌哒 对此题目的解答所做出的贡献。
题干:关于第一段中出现的environmentalists,作者最有可能同意的
定位:第一段中,关于environmentalists有2点,如果数量的减少是灭绝的信号,那么1 环保措施很重要 2 这个现象时由人类活动引起的
作者对1的态度在第4段,对 2 的态度在第2段
A They have wrongly chosen to focus on anecdotal reports rather than on the long-term data that are currently available concerning amphibians.
原文相反:第四段开头,there is simply not enough long-term scientific data,是对第三段结尾 anecdotal reports的回应,支持观点。没有涉及到wrongly chosen to focus on anecdotal reports
B Their recommendations are flawed because their research focuses too narrowly on a single category of animal species.
无涉及too narrowly on a single category of animal species.
C Their certainty that population declines in general are caused by environmental degradation is not warranted.
无涉及,原文中作者对population declines没有提出质疑
D They have drawn premature conclusions concerning a crisis in amphibian populations from recent reports of declines.
对应第二段:A declining population should not be confused with an endangered one.
E They have overestimated the effects of chance events on trends in amphibian populations.
原文相反,文中是没有考虑,非overestimated

题目讨论 (10条评论)

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    200151otsqr

    作者也不清楚是不是环境恶化导致的
    0 0 回复 2022-07-08 12:01:27
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    ziqi

    C不是不合理,只是没有证据证明
    0 0 回复 2022-04-08 16:21:47
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    Cyifan

    author believes,找到作者对上述claims的态度;
    (1)定位最后一段“It is indisputably true that there is simply not enough long-term scientific data on amphibian populations to enable researchers to identify real declines in amphibian populations. ”毫无疑问,关于两栖动物种群的长期科学数据根本不足以使研究人员能够确定两栖动物种群的真正减少。(2)定位第二段“ A declining population should not be confused with an endangered one. “不能通过短期的数据来评判是否灭绝,说明了科学家将二者混淆是不对的。
    
    D“他们从最近关于两栖动物数量下降的报告中得出了关于两栖动物种群危机的过早结论。”premature,表示目前下论断还为之过早;
    
    A wrongly chosen to focus on anecdotal reports 混淆层次;也没说错误;
    B too narrowly on a single category of animal species 没有提及;
    C is not warranted 没有提及,只是说不足以证明;
    E chance events混淆层次,overestimated没有提及;
    2 0 回复 2021-06-22 17:03:14
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    cchloee

    A: 回文定位错误,longterm data 都是在第四段说的,且这个与环境学家无关,也无法推论两者关系
    B: “their research” “ too narrowly” 这些信息不存在文章中, 文中只是说 这个report说明有这样的一个现象,而环境学家说:如果这是真的,他们认为 。。。 (但没有做学术研究)
    C: Enviromental Degration 导致 decline , 但文中逻辑关系是:  human activity 导致decline, 而decline 是degradation的一个signal 
    D: 重点词 “Premature Conclusion” 与文中对应 “ If Real” “ Immediate” “Claim”
    E:回文定位错误,且这是有关生物学家的想法。
    0 0 回复 2021-06-19 05:33:40
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    在沙漠里种月球

    科学家的观点①数量退化会造成灭绝  ② 数量减少是一种环境退化,这种环境退化是人类活动引起的。(因果关系要注意)
    
    #C选项数量减少是环境退化引起的,这个是因果倒置,数量减少是环境退化的一个体现 indicator一个指标,是由于人类活动引起的。(应该是crisis与human activity的关系 而不是与envir degradation的关系)
    
    #第四段 Many fairly common amphibian species declared all but extinct after severe declines in the 1950s and 1960s have subsequently recovered, and so might the apparently declining populations that have generated the current appearance of an amphibian crisis. 质疑的是数量减少真的会灭绝吗? 以前数量减少最后又重新recover了,所以数量退化不一定造成灭绝,科学家们的观点在这个scope上是不对的。
       A declining population should not be confused with an endangered one. 说明了科学家将二者混淆是不对的,不能通过短期的数据来评判是否灭绝
    1 0 回复 2021-05-21 15:21:20
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    1485405wibx

    我觉得应该是因为最后一段说的没有足够的long-term data来证明结论,所以premature吧。
    0 0 回复 2021-05-16 16:33:57
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    1485405wibx

    我也觉得
    0 0 回复 2021-05-16 16:28:13
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    卿卿绿草mua~

    E错在哪里?最近报道amphibian populations 下降,这不就是个随机事件么?他们从这个事件中就得出A物种灭亡,这不就是overestimated, 高估这个事件的影响严重程度么?
    0 0 回复 2020-12-13 12:05:15
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      Dora6688回复卿卿绿草mua~

      个人理解:chance events是后文提到的内容,这个地方的infer是针对第一段highlight的环境学家在第一段的观点上infer的,可先localize之后immediate 进行推理,highlight部分没有提到关于chance events的什么事情;后文的的chance event指的是导致灭绝的事件,不是灭绝这件事本身。

      0 0 回复 2020-12-30 16:22:26

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    jamsmo

    c错在强加因果 文章中degradation是结果而不是原因,human activity才是原因。
    1 0 回复 2020-11-18 00:20:39
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    1047789l

    premature是哪看出来的啊
    0 0 回复 2020-11-09 16:15:37
    • 评论用户头像

      jamsmo回复1047789l

      if real

      0 0 回复 2020-11-18 00:20:56

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