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A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker’s Beach, the world’s sole nesting ground for Merrick sea turtles, and prevented nearly all the eggs laid that year from hatching. Yet the number of adult female Merricks returning to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach has actually increased somewhat since five years ago. Clearly, environmentalists’ prediction that the world’s Merrick population would decline as a result of the spill has proven unfounded.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument offered in refutation of the environmentalists’ prediction?
分析A选项
分析B选项
分析C选项
分析D选项
分析E选项
当前版本由 ( ¨̮ ) 更新于2018-05-08 10:24:13 感谢由 ( ¨̮ ) 对此题目的解答所做出的贡献。这题说是要weaken对环保学家的反对意见,也就是支持环保学家的意见。环保学家说,是化学泄漏导致海龟population减少,所以正确答案是增大population减少的可能性。
选项分析:
A 发生泄漏的时候没有海龟也没有龟蛋,根本就没法说明海龟population减少,要的话也是说明population会增加,因为蛋的孵化没受影响,所以从这一层来讲会支持反对者;
B 海龟要10岁的时候才能下蛋,看似无关,但是是说5年前那次灾难的后果现在还没有体现出来,因为现在回来生蛋的海龟是10年前出生的,这样等再过5年,回来生蛋的海龟就必然会很少;
C 正常情况下的情况,无关;
D 天敌会减少,这会更利于海龟population增加;
E 说的是导致这海滩海龟减少的原因是那些 environmental group,无关;
题干要求 undermines the argument offered in refutation of the environmentalists’ prediction 由于原文的后半段说专家的观点是站不住脚的(unfounded),也就是说后半段是refutation 那么题目就要WEAKEN后半段 说明专家的观点是可行的
专家认为化学泄漏导致了海龟population的减少(注意不是eggs的减少)所以正确的答案应当增大population减少的可能性(又变成support了)
A说发生泄漏那年既没有M龟也没有龟蛋 这不能说明population可能会减少 要能的话也是说明population会增加(因为蛋的孵化没受到影响)
C有迷惑性 它是说在正常情况下会怎么怎么样跟现在的非正常情况扯不上关系 就算你觉得能扯上关系它也只说明海龟的数量一直很少 而不能体现出专家认为的5年内逐渐减少(各位没仔细看OG 其中有很多这样的干扰项)
D说明其他因素会导致猎食者数量减少 反而有可能会增加M龟的population 与专家观点相反
E选项沾边了 但它只能说明M龟的减少罪魁祸首是那些无聊的 environmental group 而专家的观点是M龟减少由于泄漏导致 E不能很好的支持专家
B项说M龟10岁时下蛋 为何正确呢?美国人的思维是这样的:5年前不是有个泄漏事故么 当年的蛋大部分都玩完了 导致当年M龟的population急剧下降 如果刚孵出来的小龟十年后才能产蛋 那么在近五年内都不可能会由population的增长(因为不能下蛋)因此M龟的population可能会下滑 支持了专家的观点
我们的思维是:它何时下蛋跟这次事故扯不上关系 一定得是跟泄漏事故沾边的才正确 这个想法太偏执了
GMAT逻辑难就在这里 阅读精度要高 脑子要保持清醒 还得迎合美国人的逻辑思维
还有一个问题 为什么是10岁而不是7岁8岁呢 这就是GMAT逻辑的精髓所在 美国人想问题不需要充分性 他们只要想到“有这个可能性”就行了 在此题中 7岁、8岁也是可行的 因为本题的时间跨度在5年内 所以只要是5岁以上都行(5岁以下回来下蛋说明近5年内m龟的population会增加 跟专家的观点相反)
734096hor
我看了好多解析都没有讲清楚,自己想了这个解释: ① 时间线的问题,是恰好在泄露后的那一年开始,母海龟数量在增加,是这个时间点,这个选项从头到尾没有时间点,什么时候天敌的数量在减少?今年 ?去年?还是泄露之前?如果是最近那么无法解释五年前就开始增加,如果是泄露之前就在减少了,也无法解释五年前母海龟数量才开始增加。 除非选项说天敌 数量恰好在泄露发生前后不久增加,可以解释母海龟从此之后的增加 (小偏方:提到时间线的题目选项很可能也有时间线——实在做不起才用!!)② 问题要选择一个削弱【反对环境学家】的选项,其实就是加强环境学家的预测,即泄露导致海龟数量下降。加强方向应该是【的确,泄露这个因会导致数量下降的果】,但是这个选项,导致天敌上升的是和泄露无关的环境因素,它的逻辑是 【和泄露无关的因素,导致数量上升的果】起不到加强作用,其实从加强方向来说,是无关选项。
jianfengai
注意时间问题,只关注了石油泄漏,以为石油泄漏会影响生育问题,没关注时间
一心只想杀鸡
乍一看其它选项都不对,看了很多解析,来讲下自己的理解: 逻辑链:5年前的泄露导致很多egg孵不出来-----但是泄露之后这五年来来产卵的母海龟增加---所以泄露并没有导致海龟减少 这里有一点要注意,文章并没有说泄露影响海龟生育能力,这点发现很多人理解错了,泄露与能不能生育无关。 B选项的意思就是来产卵的这些海龟是泄露前就存在了的,因为海龟一般要等到10岁才能产卵,那么五年前受影响的那批就算存活了也要再过个五年才回来产卵,等到这时就能看出海龟数量其实因为当年的事故大大减少了。所以说,海龟数量减少这个事实依然存在。 如果题目说海龟在2-3岁就能产卵,那等于说现在这一批增加的海龟就是当年的,那就支持结论了。
shadow99
600-650难度的题 真是难过
啊哈不是啊哈哈回复shadow99
这得700+了吧
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2021-07-24 21:44:40
林更新的女朋友
双重削弱
浅浅要去西班牙
Facts:
1 化学泄漏导致海龟hatch
2 5年内返回该地hatch的数量不变
Cause:化学泄漏没有影响hatch
削弱:
A:泄漏是没有海龟也没蛋,削弱fact,错错错错
B: 母乌龟在10岁的时候才会回到改地hatch,但是泄漏是五年前开始的,所以泄漏对hatch数量的影响至少要到5年后才能体现出来。现在hatch的是没有收到泄漏影响的乌龟,所以数量没减少,因此削弱了化学泄漏对乌龟数量无影响的结论。
C: background information, 介绍M海龟的概况
D: 泄漏让海龟的天敌,某种鸟死了,所以海龟的数量应该不下降才对,是加强
E: background information 式的错误
196616i回复浅浅要去西班牙
这是程序猿用代码写解析????
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2020-06-25 19:56:41
啊哈不是啊哈哈回复浅浅要去西班牙
哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈或或或或
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2021-07-24 21:44:54
suzy
相关因果 前提:五年前的女turtle回来生蛋increase 结论:spill导致的turtle egg不能hatching是错的 问削弱(spill导致的不能hatching是对的) 找选项:抓住前提,把选项扔到前提和结论之间 A 五年前无龟也无egg (对spill和hatching的因果关系无作用) B turtle 10岁才能生egg(加强了spill和hatching之间关系) C正常情况下 D中间因素会导致海龟增加supoort (否认了S与H的相关性) E第三方因素导致海龟减少 support(否认了spill和hatching之间的相关性)
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