The majority of successful senior managers do not closely follow the classical rationalmodel of first clarifying goals, assessing the problem, formulating options, estimating likelihoods of success, making a decision, and only then taking action to implement the decision. Rather, in their day-by-day tactical maneuvers, these senior executivesrely on what is vaguely termed intuition to manage a network of interrelated problemsthat require them to deal with ambiguity, inconsistency, novelty, and surprise； and to integrate action into the process of thinking.
Generations of writers on management have recognized that some practicing managers rely heavily on intuition. In general, however, such writers display a poor grasp of what intuition is. Some see it as the opposite of rationality; others view it as an excuse for capriciousness.
Isenberg's recent research on the cognitive processes of senior managers reveals that managers' intuition is neither of these. Rather, senior managers use intuition in at least five distinct ways. First, they intuitively sense when a problem exists. Second, managers rely on intuition to perform well-learned behavior patterns rapidly. This intuition is not arbitrary or irrational, but is based on years of painstaking practice and hands-on experience that build skills. A third function of intuition is to synthesize isolated bits of data and practice into an integrated picture, often in an Aha! experience. Fourth, some managers use intuition as a check on the results of more rational analysis. Most senior executives are familiar with the formal decision analysismodels and tools, and those who use such systematic methods for reaching decisions are occasionally leery of solutions suggested by these methods which run counter to their sense of the correct course of action. Finally, managers can use intuition to bypass in-depth analysis and move rapidly to engender a plausible solution. Used inthis way, intuition is an almost instantaneous cognitive process in which a manager recognizes familiar patterns.
One of the implications of the intuitive style of executive management is that thinking is inseparable from acting. Since managers often know what is right before they can analyze and explain it, they frequently act first and explain later. Analysis is inextricably tied to action in thinking/acting cycles, in which managers develop thoughts about their companies and organizations not by analyzing a problematic situation and then acting, but by acting and analyzing in close concert. Given the greatuncertainty of many of the management issues that they face, senior managers often instigate a course of action simply to learn more about an issue. They then use the results of the action to develop a more complete understanding of the issue. One implication of thinking/acting cycles is that action is often part of defining the problem, not just of implementing the solution.
According to the passage, the classical model of decision analysis includes all of the following EXCEPT
A. evaluation of a problem, 对应原文中的“assessing the problem”
B. creation of possible solutions to a problem ,对应原文中的“formulating options, ”
C. establishment of clear goals to be reached by the decision 对应原文中的 ”clarifying goals”
D. action undertaken in order to discover more information about a problem不是classical model，而是对应原文“They then use the results of the action to develop a more complete understanding of the issue. ”，这个是intuition model
E. comparison of the probable effects of different solutions to a problem 对应原文中的 “estimating likelihoods of success, ” after formualting options，也就是说，先做出不同选择再估计各种选择成功的概率
estimating likelihoods of success对应probable
0 0 回复 2018-08-12 19:39:20
对的，就是这里 其中likelihood 表示可能性
0 0 回复 2019-10-11 11:17:31